The landmark Supreme Court ruling that struck down many of President Donald Trump’s import tariffs could yield savings for consumers in the coming months, economists say.
But the savings might evaporate if Trump enacts a new round of import taxes, as he vowed to do in an impassioned news conference hours after the high court decision was released.
If relief comes, consumers can expect the most impact on categories of items that are most affected by those tariffs, including glassware and tableware, furniture and a wide range of household supplies.
Trump’s tariffs have inflated prices across a host of imported items, an effect visible in the January inflation report. The price of household furnishings and supplies rose 3.8% from January 2025 to January 2026. Furniture and bedding prices rose 4%. Prices for dishes and flatware rose 5%.
“We think tariffs pushed up consumer goods prices about 2% overall,” said Michael Pearce, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.
Will the tariff ruling bring lower consumer prices?
Where will prices go from here? A lot hinges on whether the Trump administration responds to the high court ruling with new tariffs, leveraging some legal authority other than the one the court struck down.
In a news conference hours after the ruling, Trump vowed to find a new legal basis to impose tariffs.
“We have alternatives,” Trump said. “Great alternatives. Could be more money.”
Trump then said he would sign a new executive order enacting a 10% “global tariff” on top of the import taxes that remain in place after the ruling. He cited a federal law that allows temporary import taxes in response to trade deficits.
Even before Trump spoke, many observers predicted the president would look for a way to restore his tariffs.
“My bet would be that companies are still going to be paying tariffs, just under a different statute,” said Alex Jacquez, chief of policy and advocacy at the Groundwork Collaborative, a progressive think tank.
If the Trump administration does not initiate new tariffs, a scenario that now appears unlikely, “it does mean that we could see, over the coming months, some reversals of tariff-related price increases we saw last year,” Pearce said. “Consumers could see a little bit more of a boon to their take-home income.”
How much have tariffs increased consumer prices?
Fierce debate rages over exactly how much tariffs have pushed up prices already.
A February report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found that American consumers and companies paid nearly 90% of the cost of Trump’s tariffs through late 2025.
That study struck a nerve. A top White House economic adviser, Kevin Hassett, lambasted the report, suggesting its authors should be “disciplined.”
Another analysis, by the nonprofit Tax Foundation, found that Trump’s tariffs equated to a tax increase of $1,000 per household in 2025. Households were expected to pay an additional $1,300 in 2026.
That estimate could change in light of the new court ruling. The Budget Lab at Yale suggests that consumer prices will rise 0.6% in the short term, a cost of roughly $800 for the average U.S. household. Without the high court ruling, the Budget Lab said, prices would rise twice as quickly.
Whatever their impact, tariffs have not sparked the inflation crisis many observers had feared. The overall annual inflation rate for January came in at a modest 2.4%.
The Supreme Court decision lowers America’s effective tariff rate from 12.8% to 8.3%, Pearce estimates.
The Budget Lab at Yale puts the new tariff figure at 9.1%. It’s still the highest U.S. tariff rate since 1946, excluding last year’s policy changes, according to the Budget Lab.
The Supreme Court ruling does not apply to all of the tariffs Trump enacted in 2025. It excludes, for example, tariffs on some specific industrial sectors, such as steel and motor vehicles.
Where are tariffs still in place?
With the court ruling, America’s remaining tariffs – the ones that weren’t struck down – “fall most heavily on metals, vehicles and electronics,” the Budget Lab reports.
Soon, thousands of American importers could stand to reap refunds on some or all of the estimated $150 billion they paid in tariffs.
It’s hard to see how those refunds could reach consumers, Pearce and other tariff experts said. If there are refunds, they would probably go to the importers that paid the taxes.
In fact, some businesses “have already said they will raise prices this year because of tariffs paid last year,” Jacquez said.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Here’s what the Supreme Court tariff ruling means for consumer prices
Reporting by Daniel de Visé, USA TODAY / USA TODAY
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
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