{"id":36904,"date":"2023-11-24T12:40:14","date_gmt":"2023-11-24T12:40:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/microloannexus.com\/investing\/retailers-will-compete-harder-for-holiday-sales-this-year-who-will-win\/"},"modified":"2023-11-24T12:40:15","modified_gmt":"2023-11-24T12:40:15","slug":"retailers-will-compete-harder-for-holiday-sales-this-year-who-will-win","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/microloannexus.com\/?p=36904","title":{"rendered":"Retailers Will Compete Harder for Holiday Sales This Year. Who Will Win."},"content":{"rendered":"

The holidays are
\n Mattel\u2019s<\/span>
\n Super Bowl. The Barbies and Hot Wheels and American Girl dolls it sells in the fourth quarter, which is dominated by gift buying, typically makes up about a third of the company\u2019s annual revenue. The toy maker devotes months to stocking inventories just so, mapping product releases to hit at the perfect moment, and coordinating with retailers to make sure its end-of-year strategy plays out without a hitch.<\/p>\n

But even with all that, sometimes you get a 2022.<\/p>\n

\n

Last holiday season, after two years of pandemic-stoked, spiking demand, shoppers abruptly cut back. That left Mattel\u2014and many of its fellow retailers\u2014with warehouses full of unsold merchandise and decidedly unmerry annual results. \u201c2022 was an aberration for the economy as a whole, not just for the toy industry,\u201d says Mattel CEO Ynon Kreiz.\u00a0<\/p>\n

So, what does the CEO see for the coming holiday?\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s back to the traditional shopping pattern,\u201d says Kreiz. \u201cAnd we see it as a good thing.\u201d<\/p>\n

If you are sick of hearing about the \u201cnew normal,\u201d we have good news: Welcome to the old normal. According to retail CEOs, industry analysts, and other insiders, the 2023 holiday is shaping up to look a lot like the pre-Covid years. Most forecasters are predicting that retail sales will increase between 3% and 5% this season compared with last year. That\u2019s roughly in line with the average annual increase over the decade before the pandemic, according to estimates from the National Retail Federation.<\/p>\n

A return to the old routine might make retailers\u2019 planning easier. But it probably won\u2019t please Wall Street, which quickly grew accustomed to the eye-popping growth of the pandemic-era holiday, which peaked at nearly 13%. Concerns that Americans have stopped splurging has dragged down retail stocks, with the
\n SPDR S&P Retail
\n exchange-traded fund (ticker: XRT) underperforming the broader market.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Looking at the state of the U.S. consumer, though, it isn\u2019t surprising that many are making more-conservative shopping lists this holiday. Inflation, last year\u2019s big spoiler, has cooled\u2014but not vanished. (The consumer price index climbed at a 3.2%\u00a0<\/strong>annual pace in October.) Higher interest rates, the resumption of student loan payments, and a generalized gloom about geopolitics and the economy aren\u2019t exactly shopping-spree fodder.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Still, shoppers have spent 2023 defying pundits\u2019 declarations that we\u2019re mere moments from collapse. And, as Barron\u2019s <\/em>Megan Leonhardt explains, there\u2019s plenty of solid evidence, starting with the muscular labor market, that this trend will continue through the holidays\u2014and probably beyond.<\/p>\n

\u201cAnybody who has been betting on the consumer losing momentum in this cycle has had all kinds of things that they could point to, to justify it,\u201d says Tim Quinlan, a senior economist at
\n Wells Fargo.<\/span>
\n \u201cBut it\u2019s just not a winning bet.\u201d<\/p>\n

For retailers, that means there are still holiday dollars to be captured\u2014but the bounty is unlikely to be spread around the way it has been for the past few years. Competition for shoppers will be stiffer, and some sectors are better positioned to excel. Overall, Mari Shor, an analyst at Columbia Threadneedle Investments, describes this season as a \u201cnail-biter\u201d for retailers, as they prepare to battle for their share of the gifting pie.\u00a0<\/p>\n

And for investors, while we can\u2019t promise that you\u2019ll love the modest, 2019-style sales growth experts are expecting, we can offer you some ideas about which companies might be best poised to meet the moment\u2014and help get you through the season, manicure unscathed.\u00a0<\/p>\n

When it comes to picking winners and losers this holiday season, analysts point to two critical factors: how efficiently a retailer has responded to the changing conditions, and which consumer segments it serves.<\/p>\n

Last year showcased the perils of misreading demand, especially when it comes to overstocking. \u201cThere\u2019s nothing more challenging than having too much inventory,\u201d says Jane Nielsen, CFO of Ralph Lauren. Retailers with a backlog have no choice but to discount, discount, discount, destroying margins.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\n

<\/p>\n

\n
<\/div>
\n
\n Illustration by Simon Bailly\/Sepia
\n <\/span>
\n <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

Interpreting the current state of inventories is tricky. While the overall inventory-to-sales ratio is lower than it was prepandemic, it\u2019s still at its highest point since May 2020, according to Census Bureau data. But drill down to what the Bureau calls \u201cgeneral merchandise\u201d\u2014which includes most big-box retailers\u2014and that same ratio is trending lower than it was this time last year, according to a study from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. You can also see the correction at individual companies such as
\n Target
\n (TGT), which reported an inventory drop of 14% in the latest quarter compared with the same quarter in 2022.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The retailers that have best predicted how many of their particular widgets shoppers are willing to buy will be in the driver\u2019s seat\u2014though even they will be doing plenty of markdowns as they duel with competitors for a greater share of shopper dollars. (Deal watchers: analysts are predicting the usual Black Friday discounts, which start earlier every year\u2014plus more late-season deals than we\u2019ve seen in recent holidays.)\u00a0<\/p>\n

When it comes to clientele, this is a good year to appeal to wealthier Americans, who accounted for close to half of total spending from 2020 to 2022, according to
\n Morgan Stanley.<\/span>
\n High earners are coasting on the strong stock market and elevated housing prices, and are less impacted by macroeconomic challenges than lower-earning households, say experts.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Michelle FauntLeRoy, for one, is feeling jolly heading into the holidays. FauntLeRoy works in business analytics, and says she\u2019s had an \u201camazing\u201d 2023. She got a tax refund for buying an electric vehicle, a bigger bonus than expected, and isn\u2019t planning on skimping on gifts for her two young-adult daughters and husband. She estimates she will spend about $6,000 on Christmas gifts this year, and up to an additional $4,000 to throw an annual holiday party.<\/p>\n

\u201cMy household is very economically stable\u2014I know I\u2019m very fortunate with that,\u201d she says. \u201cSo I feel good about my ability to buy gifts.\u201d<\/p>\n

Investing in luxury players is one way to bet on higher-income shoppers. After starting the year strong, the sector has looked a little wobbly lately, as evidenced by a rare revenue shortfall from
\n LVMH Mo\u00ebt Hennessy Louis Vuitton
\n (LVMUY) in the most recent quarter. The
\n Tema Luxury
\n ETF (LUX) has shed 6.3% over the past three months.<\/p>\n

But the real risk in the sector, say analysts, is to the so-called aspirational luxury companies like
\n Tapestry
\n (TPR),
\n Capri Holdings
\n (CPRI), and
\n Nordstrom
\n (JWN), which cater to a shopper who\u2019s not quite in the income bracket for traditional luxury. \u201cThe aspirational consumer is under more pressure on a relative basis,\u201d acknowledged Tapestry CEO Joanne Crevoiserat, on an earnings call with analysts.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the sector pullback could provide the opportunity to snap up some truly luxurious stocks at outlet prices.
\n Herm\u00e8s International
\n (RMS.France), LVMH, and
\n Ralph Lauren
\n (RL) are all trading at lower valuations than their five-year average, despite the fact that the companies have been executing well in a rocky environment.<\/p>\n

Lower- and middle-income households are more likely to cut back this year, analysts say.\u00a0<\/strong>They\u2019ll also be more selective and prioritize value, says Oliver Chen, an analyst at TD Cowen. That means consumers will be hunting for deals, comparing prices, and searching for convenience.<\/p>\n

One of Chen\u2019s top stocks this season is
\n Walmart
\n (WMT). The company,<\/strong> which is a 2023 Barron\u2019s<\/em> stock pick,\u00a0<\/strong>has done a \u201creally great job\u201d of consistently undercutting rivals on price while still delivering an easy and enjoyable shopping experience, he says.\u00a0The stock nosedived after Walmart struck a cautious tone in its third-quarter earnings report, but many analysts, like Chen, still believe the company is well positioned heading into the holidays. In fact, the pullback may actually present an opportunity to nab the shares at a lower price. Other companies that win analyst kudos for capturing that thirst for value plus convenience include
\n Costco Wholesale
\n (COST),
\n Amazon.com
\n (AMZN), and
\n TJX Cos.
\n (TJX).<\/p>\n

Of course, there are some shopping trends that cut across the income spectrum. Consumer electronics, for example, \u201cis going to have a moment\u201d as people start to trade in the products they bought during the pandemic for the latest models, says Stephanie Cegielski, vice president of research and public relations at the International Council of Shopping Centers. While much of the Street is still bearish on
\n Best Buy
\n (BBY), some\u2014including
\n Goldman Sachs
\n \u2014have started turning bullish in anticipation of that demand resurgence.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The toy industry, on the other hand, is coming down from recent highs and will see a modest slowdown this season, says Mattel CEO Kreiz. Still, he says Mattel expects to outpace the industry and boost revenue by double digits in the fourth quarter compared with a year ago. Some analysts agree, noting that the momentum from the Barbie<\/em> movie could help Mattel pull ahead of competitor
\n Hasbro
\n (HAS) this year.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Apparel is another area anticipating an underwhelming holiday. In fact, many companies in the sector have taken a particularly cautious approach to ordering holiday inventory, says Kelly Pedersen, retail leader at PwC: \u201cIt\u2019s hard to say whether that\u2019s been self-fulfilling a little bit, but we are seeing now that there\u2019s a softness in demand for apparel.\u201d<\/p>\n

Because shoppers are increasingly choosing one of two opposing paths\u2014luxe or value\u2014the apparel companies operating in the middle look to be in the worst spot. Morgan Stanley analyst Alex Straton believes
\n Levi Strauss
\n (LEVI),
\n Victoria\u2019s Secret
\n (VSCO), and
\n PVH
\n (PVH), the parent of brands including Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger, could prove to be holiday laggards this year. On the flip side, those with slightly higher-income customers, like
\n Abercrombie and Fitch
\n (ANF) and
\n Lululemon Athletica
\n (LULU), could still be hot gift-buying destinations.<\/p>\n

Finally, a word of caution for anyone taking too much of a Grinch-eye view of this holiday. Consumers spent most of 2023 grumbling about the state of the economy while still spending away, and they could very well finish the year the same way. As Morning Consult analyst Claire Tassin points out, there\u2019s a difference between what people think they should do and what they actually do\u2014especially around the holidays. The season, she says, can\u2019t help but give \u201ca little bit of space, or permission, to spend and splurge.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

Write to Sabrina Escobar at sabrina.escobar@barrons.com<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

Read the full article here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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