{"id":23233,"date":"2023-09-29T16:30:24","date_gmt":"2023-09-29T16:30:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/microloannexus.com\/investing\/china-beige-book-survey-points-to-weak-september-economic-data\/"},"modified":"2023-09-29T16:30:25","modified_gmt":"2023-09-29T16:30:25","slug":"china-beige-book-survey-points-to-weak-september-economic-data","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/microloannexus.com\/?p=23233","title":{"rendered":"China Beige Book Survey Points to Weak September Economic Data"},"content":{"rendered":"
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A lack of confidence among consumers is weighing on spending in China. Above, a street scene in Shanghai.<\/h4>\n


\n Raul Ariano\/Bloomberg
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China\u2019s economic recovery isn\u2019t gaining the momentum money managers are awaiting.<\/p>\n

Data from China Beige Book show that the economic green shoots glimpsed in August didn\u2019t sprout further in September. Job growth and consumer spending faltered, while orders for exports came in at the lowest level since March, according to a monthly flash survey of more than 1,300 companies the independent research firm released Thursday evening.<\/p>\n

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Consumers\u2019 initial revenge spending after Covid restrictions eased could be waning, the results indicate, with the biggest pullbacks in food and luxury items. While travel remains a bright spot ahead of the country\u2019s Mid-Autumn Festival, hospitality firms and chain restaurants saw a sharp decline in sales, according to the survey.<\/p>\n

And although policy makers have shown their willingness to stabilize the property market, the data showed another month of slower sales and lower prices in both the residential and commercial sectors. <\/p>\n

Even more troubling are the continued problems at Evergrande Group, which has scuttled a plan to restructure itself, raising the risk of a liquidation that could further destabilize the property market and hit confidence about the economy. The embattled developer said it was notified that the company\u2019s chairman Hui Ka Yan, who is under police watch, is suspected of committing criminal offenses.<\/p>\n

Nicole Kornitzer, who manages the $750 million Buffalo International Fund (ticker: BUIIX), worries about a \u201crecession of expectations\u201d as confidence continues to take a hit, discouraging people and businesses from spending. Kornitzer has only a fraction of the fund\u2019s assets in China at the moment. <\/p>\n

Before allocating more to China, Kornitzer said, she needs to see at least a couple quarters of improvement in spending, with consumption broadening beyond travel and dining out. Signs of stabilization in the housing market would be encouraging as well, she said.<\/p>\n

She isn\u2019t alone in her concern about spending. Vivian Lin Thurston, manager for William Blair\u2019s emerging markets and China strategies, said confidence among both consumers and small- and medium-enterprises is still suffering.<\/p>\n

\u201cEveryone is still out and about but they don\u2019t buy as much or buy lower-priced goods so retail sales aren\u2019t recovering as strongly and lower-income consumers are still under pressure because their employment and income aren\u2019t back to pre-COVID levels,\u201d said Thurston, who just returned from a visit to China. <\/p>\n

\u201cA lot of small- and medium- enterprises are struggling to stay afloat and are definitely taking a wait-and-see approach on whether they can expand. A lot went out of business during Covid and aren\u2019t back yet. So far the stimulus measures have been anemic.\u201d<\/p>\n

Beijing needs to do more, especially to stabilize the property sector, Thurston said. The view on the ground is that more help could come in the fourth quarter\u2014or once the Federal Reserve is done raising rates. <\/p>\n

The fact that the Fed is raising rates while Beijing is cutting them is already putting pressure on the renminbi. If policy makers in China wait until the Fed is done, that would alleviate one source of pressure before their fiscal stimulus adds its own.<\/p>\n

Write to Reshma Kapadia at reshma.kapadia@barrons.com<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Read the full article here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A lack of confidence among consumers is weighing on spending in China. Above, a street scene in Shanghai. Raul Ariano\/Bloomberg China\u2019s economic recovery isn\u2019t gaining the momentum money managers are awaiting. Data from China Beige Book show that the economic green shoots glimpsed in August didn\u2019t sprout further in September. Job growth and consumer spending<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":23234,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[49],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-23233","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-investing"},"yoast_head":"\nChina Beige Book Survey Points to Weak September Economic Data | Micro Loan Nexus<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A lack of confidence among consumers is weighing on spending in China. Above, a street scene in Shanghai. 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