{"id":20778,"date":"2023-09-20T10:55:41","date_gmt":"2023-09-20T10:55:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/microloannexus.com\/news\/bank-of-england-rate-hike-pause-back-on-the-table-after-inflation-surprise\/"},"modified":"2023-09-20T10:55:41","modified_gmt":"2023-09-20T10:55:41","slug":"bank-of-england-rate-hike-pause-back-on-the-table-after-inflation-surprise","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/microloannexus.com\/?p=20778","title":{"rendered":"Bank of England rate hike pause back on the table after inflation surprise"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"RegularArticle-ArticleBody-6\" data-module=\"ArticleBody\" data-test=\"articleBody-2\" data-analytics=\"RegularArticle-articleBody-6-2\"><span class=\"HighlightShare-hidden\" style=\"top:0;left:0\"><\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>LONDON \u2014 The Bank of England&#8217;s next monetary policy move is now wide open, following a significant downside surprise in the August inflation print out earlier on Wednesday.<\/p>\n<p>Prior to the August consumer price index reading, the market was pricing in an 80% chance that the central bank would hike interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday to 5.5% \u2014 the highest level since December 2007.<\/p>\n<p>Market pricing swung drastically after the annual headline CPI print fell to 6.7% in August from the 6.8% of July, defying a consensus forecast that it would rise to 7%.<\/p>\n<p>Shortly after 10 a.m. London time, the probability that the Bank will hold rates steady at 5.25% had risen from 20% to almost 55%, according to LSEG swaps data.<\/p>\n<p>Notably, core CPI \u2014 which excludes volatile food, energy, alcohol and tobacco prices \u2014 came in at 6.2% in the 12 months to the end of August, down from 6.9% in July. The goods rate rose slightly from 6.1% to 6.3%, but was more than offset by the services rate slowing significantly from 7.4% to 6.8%.<\/p>\n<p>Following the surprise, <span class=\"QuoteInBody-quoteNameContainer\" data-test=\"QuoteInBody\" id=\"RegularArticle-QuoteInBody-3\">Goldman Sachs<span class=\"QuoteInBody-inlineButton\"><span class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistContainer\" id=\"-WatchlistDropdown\" data-analytics-id=\"-WatchlistDropdown\"><button class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-watchlistButton\" aria-label=\"Add To Watchlist\" data-testid=\"dropdown-btn\"><span class=\"AddToWatchlistButton-addWatchListFromTag\"><\/span><\/button><\/span><\/span><\/span> changed its projection for Thursday&#8217;s critical rate decision and now expects the Bank of England to keep its main bank rate unchanged.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;With today&#8217;s data, two out of the three indicators that the MPC has set out to monitor inflation persistence have now shown notably more progress than anticipated since the August meeting,&#8221; Chief European Economist Jari Stehn and his team said in a note Wednesday. <\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Combined with their recent dovish commentary, we now expect the MPC to keep Bank Rate unchanged tomorrow and lower our forecast for the terminal policy rate to 5.25% (from 5.5% before).&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<h2 class=\"ArticleBody-subtitle\">A &#8216;much more finely balanced&#8217; decision<\/h2>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<p>Barclays analysts said in a research note on Wednesday that the broad-based downside surprise, especially relative to the Bank&#8217;s August projections of a 7.1% headline inflation print and a 7.2% services rate, meant that the Bank of England&#8217;s decision of Thursday is now &#8220;much more finely balanced.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>However, the British lender still favors a 25 basis point increase, albeit with a more dovish vote split among Monetary Policy Committee than previously anticipated.<\/p>\n<p>This was echoed by Berenberg Senior Economist Kallum Pickering, who said in an email on Wednesday that, although the downside surprise in August inflation strengthens the chance of a pause on Thursday, the MPC is likely to lean towards one more increase, &#8220;while providing a strong signal that further hikes are unlikely as long as inflation continues to trend lower.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;After all, monthly data can be volatile and, despite the sharp fall in core inflation, price pressures remain well above the BoE&#8217;s 2% target. In addition, underlying demand remains mostly resilient and wage pressures are still elevated \u2013 which adds to services cost pressures,&#8221; Pickering added.<\/p>\n<p>The Bank of England has been treading a narrow path between bringing inflation back to earth and tipping the so far surprisingly robust economy into recession.<\/p>\n<p>After a slew of profit warnings from British companies on Tuesday \u2014 and with the U.K. economy shrinking by 0.5% in July, well below a consensus forecast of a 0.2% contraction \u2014 the MPC will be under more pressure to take its foot off the brake, as inflationary pressures abate.<\/p>\n<p>Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at stockbroker AJ Bell, said that, alongside the profit warnings and weak GDP print, the downside inflation shock could give the MPC &#8220;enough wiggle room to adopt a wait and see strategy.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;It&#8217;s important to remember the impact of these rate hikes is a slow burn. What has been done over the past 14 meetings is only just being felt by many businesses and homeowners, with half a million of the latter dreading the anticipated Christmas present of increased mortgage payments at the most expensive time of the year,&#8221; Hewson added.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Although inflation is falling, that doesn&#8217;t mean prices are coming down, and if the Bank of England has grounds to at least skip this rate hike that&#8217;s because cracks are beginning to form.&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2023\/09\/20\/bank-of-england-rate-hike-pause-back-on-the-table-after-inflation-surprise.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>LONDON \u2014 The Bank of England&#8217;s next monetary policy move is now wide open, following a significant downside surprise in the August inflation print out earlier on Wednesday. Prior to the August consumer price index reading, the market was pricing in an 80% chance that the central bank would hike interest rates by 25 basis<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":20486,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[43],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-20778","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-news"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.12 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Bank of England rate hike pause back on the table after inflation surprise | Micro Loan Nexus<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"LONDON \u2014 The Bank of England&#039;s next monetary policy move is now wide open, following a significant downside surprise in the August inflation print out\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, 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